Who’s up, who’s down, and who’s currently leading the race for a coveted Oscar nomination.

Who’s up, who’s down, and who’s currently leading the race for a coveted Oscar nomination.

Every week between now and January 24, when the Academy Awards nominations are announced, Vulture will consult its crystal ball to determine the changing fortunes of this year’s Oscars race. In our “Oscar Futures” column, we’ll share insider gossip, parse brand-new developments, and track industry buzz to figure out who’s up, who’s down, and who’s leading the race for a coveted Oscar nomination.

Best Picture

Top Gun: Maverick

The National Board of Review has a reputation as one of the stodgier precursors, but this year, the collection of filmmakers, academics, and movie nerds displayed a surprising need for speed, handing Top Gun: Maverick their Best Film prize. While the NBR’s top pick is hardly predictive with Best Picture — Green Book is the only overlap in the past decade — you could take this honor as proof the cognoscenti are indeed willing to embrace a billion-dollar grosser. Having also cracked the AFI’s top-ten list on Friday, Maverick is seemingly assured of a Best Picture nomination, but could we be underestimating its chances of winning the whole thing? The preferential ballot often rewards the film with the fewest haters, and amid a polarizing Oscar crop, that looks like it might be Top Gun.

The Whale

Since the Academy expanded Best Picture, only one Best Actor winner, Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart, has not seen their film also nominated in the top category. Will this season test that record? Darren Aronofsky’s film has blanked at almost every precursor, and now that it’s finally out, critics are unleashing their harpoons. (“Brendan Fraser deserves an Oscar for The Whale, but the movie? She blows,” cracks Slate.) Team Whale will argue that this is not a movie for critics, and they might be right. Still, given the controversy over the film’s depiction of obesity, they may need to batten down the hatches for more storms to come.

Current Predix

Avatar: The Way of Water, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Glass Onion, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick, The Woman King, Women Talking

Best Director

Sam Mendes, Empire of Light

With sterling cinematography from Roger Deakins and a star turn from Olivia Colman, Sam Mendes’s early-’80s drama boasts a gold-plated awards pedigree. Unfortunately, it debuted to a muted reaction during festival season, with critics bemoaning the first-time solo screenwriter’s inability to pick a lane. As Guy Lodge put it, Empire is a “dewy ode to the restorative magic of cinema that is also a Thatcher-era race-hate study but also a schizophrenia portrait but also an odd-couple romance.” Mendes’s film hits theaters this weekend in search of a comeback, but neither the weak reviews nor the dim box-office prospects should help in that regard.

James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water

First reactions to Cameron’s Avatar sequel dropped this week, and if hyperbolic tweets from film critics are your kink, Christmas just came early. “Absolutely owns bones,” says David Sims. “Light years better than the first and easily one of the best theatrical experiences in ages,” says David Ehrlich. “I’ve never seen anything like this,” says Mike Ryan. We’ll have more on Way of Water next week, but for now, it looks like pundits were not wrong to save some seats for the aquatic auteur in the Picture and Director races.

Current Predix

James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water; Todd Field, Tár; Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin; Sarah Polley, Women Talking; Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans

Best Actor

Brendan Fraser, The Whale

Fraser’s Oscar fortunes might rely on voters divorcing their feelings about the man and his performance from the movie surrounding it. The good news is that many reviewers seem to be doing just that. “The Whale is laughably earnest, larded with melodrama,” says Anthony Lane. “If it proves nonetheless to be stirringly watchable, we have Brendan Fraser to thank. Returning to the spotlight, he continues to radiate an essential sweetness of nature.” The actor’s comeback narrative is so appealing he may yet coast to inevitable victory. But The Whale’s string of snubs could be a sign he’s ripe for a Glenn Close–style upset.

Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin

With early voting bodies proving resistant to Fraser’s charms, Farrell has had the tastemaker phase of the season all to himself. A week after picking up Best Actor honors from the NYFCC, he did it again at the NBR. Critics are lining up behind Farrell’s gormless turn in Banshees; can they sway industry groups toward his lower-key comeback?

Current Predix

Austin Butler, Elvis; Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin; Brendan Fraser, The Whale; Paul Mescal, Aftersun; Bill Nighy, Living

Best Actress

Olivia Colman, Empire of Light

Mendes has given his leading lady plenty of Academy-friendly notes to play: She’s a lonely woman with mental-health issues who embarks upon a May-December romance. It’s an emotional high-wire act that the filmmaking doesn’t always support. Says Mick La Salle: “How could Mendes save her when he was no doubt hoping that she would save him?” Colman’s track record with the Oscars made her a popular preseason pick, but now only one of GoldDerby’s experts still has her in their final five.

Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Michelle Yeoh and Cate Blanchett have been on the Best Actress seesaw: Yeoh won at the Gothams, Blanchett won NYFCC, and now Yeoh won NBR, while Tár was shut out entirely. Sadly, the Golden Globes won’t clarify things since the pair are running in separate categories. In the absence of any shocking snubs, we may have to wait until SAG in late February to see who’s got the edge.

Current Predix

Cate Blanchett, Tár; Viola Davis, The Woman King; Danielle Deadwyler, Till; Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans; Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Supporting Actor

Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin

Gleeson interrupted Ke-Huy Quan’s winning streak by taking the NBR’s Supporting Actor prize. Usually only one of the NBR’s four acting winners each year goes on to triumph with Oscar, so take his win with a grain of salt, but the gruff Irishman does feel like he’s joined Quan as one of this race’s few locks.

Michael Ward, Empire of Light

A co-lead who splits POV duties with Colman, Ward could have had a Supporting Actor shout had Empire of Light performed up to expectations. He’s winning here as a young man on the come-up, but he’s also at the mercy of a screenplay that features some unfortunate implications about racism’s ability to cure white people’s mental-health struggles.

Current Predix

Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin; Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans; Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin; Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once; Ben Whishaw, Women Talking

Best Supporting Actress

Hong Chau, The Whale

“Hong, not for the first time proving herself a movie’s secret weapon, gives perhaps The Whale’s finest, least forced performance,” writes Justin Chang. The success of The Menu, which has outgrossed most of the fall’s putative Oscar players, should give her more juice, but she’s also a leading indicator of her co-star’s strength: We’ll know Fraser’s still the front-runner if she becomes a regular in Supporting Actress lineups.

Janelle Monáe, Glass Onion

The NBR’s most enjoyable left-field pick came when they named Monáe Best Supporting Actress. I wouldn’t dare spoil what she gets up to in Glass Onion, but suffice it to say she’s given plenty of opportunities to show off her range. I know Netflix is pushing her, but whether this race has room for a surprise will come down to whether contenders like Women Talking and Everything Everywhere All at Once double-dip.

Current Predix

Jessie Buckley, Women Talking; Hong Chau, The Whale; Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin; Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once; Claire Foy, Women Talking

More From This Series

• The Critics Have Spoken, and Oppenheimer Is the Name on Their Lips
• Oscar Futures: Our Final Predictions for the Nominees
• Oscar Futures: Who Will Be Our Nomination-Morning Surprise?

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